As Americans take to the polls, the good bloggers @ Über Desi, most of whom are not voting eligible (age is not the factor) attempt their own predictions based on an intricate system involving months of research, media hype, rhetoric, crystal balls, astrological charts and just plain gut feeling.
Here is how we did it. [link]
1. We decide whether the candidates will win in states that lean towards them
2. Using above mentioned criteria, we pick the tossup states Ohio, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota.
3. We add the total delegates and pick a winner
Santosh
The lean states are won by the favorites. No upsets there.
Obama: Ohio
McCain: Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri
Obama: 311 McCain: 227
Winner: Obama in a close election after sweating out the results of Ohio and Florida.
Sidhu
The lean states are won by the favorites. No upsets there.
Obama:
McCain: Ohio, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri
Obama: 291 McCain: 247
Winner: Obama in a nail biter late into the night.
Karthik
The lean states are won by the favorites. No upsets there.
Obama: Ohio, Indiana, Florida, North Carolina
McCain: Montana, North Dakota, Missouri
Obama: 364 McCain: 174
Winner: Obama wins comfortably early in the night.
Anantha
The lean states are won by the Obama in major upsets.
Obama: Ohio, Indiana, Florida, North Carolina
McCain: Montana, North Dakota, Missouri
Obama: 419 McCain: 119
Winner: In a beatdown of epic proportions Obama pwns McCain.
Note: All bloggers are aware of the Bradley Effect and its possible repercussions (or the lack thereof) on this election night. These predictions are strictly for entertainment purposes vonly.
The New York Times has a great viewing guide for the election night. Basically this is what it boils down to:
Conventional wisdom suggests that if Mr. Obama wins, he will do so early, because the polls in so many tossup states — Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida — close early.
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